President Trump and his administration have been pressing Arab countries, including Palestine, to normalize relations with Israel. However, presidential elections can change the situation and introduce a new vector of cooperation in the Middle East.
Significance
Jerusalem and neighboring areas have been one of the leading concerns for the international community for several decades. The conflict of interest between Israel and Palestine because of their rights for the land preconditions the aggravation of relations between the states. Moreover, the question introduces additional instability to the Middle Eastern region. The further deterioration of the situation might result in a full-scale war between Israel and Palestine and affect the global community.
Analysis
The Presidential elections in the USA might have a significant impact on the region and relations between Israel and Palestine. At the moment, the situation is difficult as multiple disputable questions affect the positions of both states. President Trump and his administration have a concise attitude demonstrated by several vital strategic decisions. First of all, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (Gordon & Strobel, 2020). This decision preconditioned the end of the so-called two-state solution presupposing the consideration of both parties’ interests and introduced the one-state reality (Elgindy, 2020). The current President’s policy contradicts the previous U.S efforts to find international consensus by finding a compromise. However, it also demonstrates the focus of Trump’s policy. He emphasizes the necessity to normalize relations between Israel and other Arab countries presented in the region (Elgindy, 2020). One reason for the adherence to this idea is the strategically important role Israel plays in the area. Trump views the state as a powerful actor with a strong army, balancing the growing force represented by numerous Arab countries. Because of the need for allies in the region, Trump provides substantial support to Israel and is ready to continue the course.
In terms of these solutions, a second Trump term would lead to the further empowerment of Israel. Following the selected course, the President will support the state and protect its claims regarding Jerusalem and areas, which also have high strategic importance for Palestine (Gordon & Strobel, 2020). It will also mean the complete refusal of a two-state solution. Trump is ready to solve the problem with or without Palestinian participation, which means that the policy will become even stricter (Elgindy, 2020). Analysts expect that the President will cause even more pressure on Arab states to normalize their relations with Israel and recognize its right for Jerusalem and other areas (Elgindy, 2020). With such support, Israel will continue its aggressive policy aimed at the spread of its influence and resistance to Palestine and its attempts to preserve control over other strategically important regions.
The complexity of the given question transforms it into the aspect that is often discussed by candidates in their programs. Biden and his administration emphasize the fact that they also have a strategy for the Middle Eastern region and regulation of relations between Israel and Palestine. One of the major ideas is to use a radically different approach in planning policies regarding the issue. Emphasizing the critical differences in ideologies, Biden proclaims the need to turn back to the previous methods and sit down at the negotiating table as the only possible solution to the problem (Elgindy, 2020). This perspective on the topic gives much hope to adherers of a two-state solution and might improve the position of Palestine and its leaders (Elgindy, 2020). Moreover, Biden proclaims the unacceptability of Israel’s occupation of territories with complex status and the need for a collaborative effort to find a strategy that would meet the interests of both parties.
Return to the previous policy will also mean that the USA will try to restore diplomatic relations with Palestine and promote diplomatic ties by engaging in meaningful cooperation. Biden views recent Trump’s policies as damaging and dangerous as they might destroy the balance between parties and spread havoc in the region (Elgindy, 2020). For this reason, his victory in presidential elections will mean that the approach to Palestine will differ radically, and new tools will be used while negotiating with the state. Biden wants to return to the status quo and turn back to the situation as it was before Trump’s intervention (Elgindy, 2020). However, analyzing this position, multiple researchers agree in the opinion that it is not enough to foster the peace process and reduce tension between the two states. The current situation is extremely difficult, and the elimination of existing policies will not precondition the disappearance of disputable questions between parties.
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It is also vital to consider that Biden plans to continue providing substantial support to Israel, as the USA needs a powerful ally in the area. It means that along with the return to a two-state solution, the idea of powerful Israel will remain dominant, and Palestine will have the secondary role. Because of the long history of relations between the USA and Israel, none of the candidates are capable of cutting ties with the state or proclaiming the unacceptability of the current position of their ally. For this reason, the problem will remain complex, and there will be a tendency for its sophistication. Trump and his administration or Biden and his team will not be able to drive a radical and positive shift in relations between the two countries because.
For Palestine, Biden can be viewed as a more desirable option because of his desire to return to the status quo. At the same time, its position will remain vulnerable. Recent changes in the policy and the international discourse precondition the end of a two-state solution and its transformation into a one-state reality (Hincks, 2020). Moreover, using substantial support, Israel acts aggressively and disregards some previous solutions and regulations, trying to acquire more control. This situation is challenging for Palestine, which has its interests in the area and is not ready to accept the dominant position of Israel. For this reason, the presidential elections in the USA might have a less significant impact on the area as someone expects it. Regardless of Biden or Trump’s incentives, Palestine might prefer to solve the problem by using other tools and focusing on its national movement (The Media Line, 2020). In such a scenario, the new military conflict will destroy stability in the region and attract the interests of all international agencies and players.
What Next
It is possible to predict the further deterioration of relations between Israel and Palestine. Trump or Biden’s victories will not resolve the conflict and meet the interests of all parties. At the moment, it is impossible to restore the status quo and the idea of a two-state reality. That is why a new President will face a new challenge in the area.
References
Gordon, M., & Strobel, W. (2020). Where Trump and Biden stand on the Middle East. The Wall Street Journal.
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Elgindy, K. (2020). What does a Trump or Biden presidency mean for Israel and Palestine? The Cairo Review of Global Affairs.
Hincks, J. (2020). What a Biden Presidency might mean for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Time.
The Media Line. (2020). Palestinians see little difference between Trump and Biden. Ynet News.