Introduction
In any democratic nation, the presidential election period is characterized by a critique of the current regime’s policies and rules. Aspects such as the economy, crime, public opinion, policies, and actions in the office form a strong basis that influences the success of the ruling government. These factors remain a crucial campaign tool for aspiring candidates and offer a basis for how a given president can be assessed. The transition from President Obama to Trump in the United States offers a perfect case to analyze presidential transitions and assess how Trump might be viewed.
Public Opinion Assessment
Different things indicate how successful the Trump administration was compared to the Obama regime. For instance, public opinion after the end of Obama’s presidency indicates that the former president left office with a solid approval rating compared to Trump. According to a poll of U.S. voters, 53% approved of the work of Obama, while only 34% approved of Trump’s work (Presidential approval ratings — Gallup Historical Statistics and trends).
The low rating points to Trump’s criticisms of his aggression towards North Korea and the protests in Charlottesville, Virginia. Most of the Obama positive ratings came from the Millenials, where 46 percent ranked him as “the favorite president in US history” (Presidential approval ratings — Gallup Historical Statistics and trends). The low Trump ratings resulted from a period of high controversy, which overshadowed his accomplishments.
Economy Assessment
Most Americans consider the state of the economy a crucial element when voting for the next President. Towards the end of the first term, Trump claimed that he deserved a second term because, before the COVID-19 pandemic, he stated that his administration “oversaw the most outstanding economy in the history of the United States” (Chinni). A review of the economic indicators for the first three years since each president took office shows a continuation of economic trends in the nation. For instance, the economic growth during the Trump administration for the first three years was 2.5 percent compared to 2.4 percent during the Obama administration (Chinni). On employment, Obama edges Trump in his first three years in office as Obama created 8.1 million jobs while Trump created 6.6 million jobs (Isidore).
During the transition period, Trump’s primary campaigns within the Midwest regions focused on his support for the working-class base. In Trump’s first three years in office, he created 1.27 million jobs within the blue-collar construction and manufacturing industries, while Obama created 1.12 million jobs (The USA, National Archives and Records Administration). The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic considerably dwindled employment rates towards the end of Trump’s first term.
In debates, Trump liked to use the broad Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to brag about his impressive stewardship of the U.S. economy. Trump often marked Obama as “a disaster” to the nation’s stock market. During Trump’s three years as president, the S&P was 12.2%, while the record from Obama on the exact duration was 7.5% (Silcox). The increase during the Trump administration can be cited to the Job Act of 2017, where publicly-traded corporations saw significant tax cuts. Under tax cuts, these corporations experienced increased revenues, raising interest in the stock market.
Crime Assessment
Another crucial factor to consider when analyzing Obama and Trump administrations is the level of crime in the nation throughout their tenure. For the clearer evaluation, complete data on the violent crime rates for the two administration periods must be collected. During this time, regulations for recording crime have also been changed. The highest level of violent crime during the Obama term, which ran from 2009 to 2017, was 431.9 per 100,000 inhabitants (Goel). Though there lacks sufficient data to compare for the Trump administration, updated data is from 2019, which was at 366.7 per 100,000 inhabitants (Goel). The FBI table reveals that though there was a spike in crime during the Trump administration compared to Obama’s, they are unverifiable.
Research by the Pew Research Centre reveals that the federal prison population’s first decade declined during the Obama presidency and was further reduced during the Trump era. Gramlich (2021) reports that “the number of federal prisoners sentenced to more than a year decreased by 5 percent between Trump’s first and last year in office owing to policy changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic”.
The Obama presidency advocated for lighter sentences for lower-level criminals while also sing executive clemency frequently. During the Obama administration, the number of prisoners fell by 10% (Gramlich). Both presidents’ policies played a critical role in shaping the level of crime rate during their tenure.
Merits of the International Order under Obama
Since the end of the Cold War, one dominant assumption has been that the U.S. needs to remain the supreme power within the international system. Based on this conception, the U.S. is expected to guarantee international stability. The U.S. leadership is believed to be in the best interest of the U.S. nationals and most states worldwide. During the Obama leadership, the world order benefited from various approaches. Under changing international system, the Obama administration undertook different steps that saw the distribution of power and influence among the major powers. The Obama rule propagated a shift in restoring moral authority and attempts to achieve multilateralism.
Upon taking office, Obama distanced himself from the excesses of the war on terror and attempted to restore an everyday basis of mutual interests and values. This act was between the U.S. and those nations expected to follow American leadership, especially the traditional U.S. allies. After assuming office, Obama stated that “during the global war on terror, the U.S. has dented the values that had established the U.S. firm” (Prasad). Since that time, as Obama swore, interrogation approaches have been restricted to those delineated in the Army Field Manual and within limits set by the Geneva Conventions. Secret prisons have been shut down, except those where detainees were held temporarily on the transition to other facilities.
President Obama made significant efforts to develop institutional procedures embedding the U.S. in multilateral frameworks and permitting other nations to have some influence on U.S. policies. The Obama administration used informal ad-hoc institutions, most notably the Nuclear Security Summit held in April 2010 (Prasad).
In the economic scope, traditional multilateralism gave way to pragmatic multilateralism. With the Doha round of global trade talks halted the priority shifted toward the regional trade pact. For the United States, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) is a technique of refuting Chinese hegemonic ambitions in Asia by rejecting China’s political influence over other Asian countries in case they become too economically reliant on China.
The Obama administration also saw a shift in U.S. policy to cooperate with other global powers. For the U.S. to utilize international organizations like the United Nations, the Obama administration ensured other significant powers were granted spheres of influence. From the beginning, the Obama administration prioritized resetting relations with Russia that had weakened over the last years of the Bush administration and establishing cooperation on security issues. It hoped that by developing a comprehensive cooperation agenda, Russia could cooperate on issues of utmost importance for the U.S. foreign, especially nuclear arms control and nuclear non-proliferation.
The Obama administration worked on a world order where cooperation between the U.S. and other nations could exist. However, in the presidential race, for the first time since U.S. global leadership, a candidate has come under the slogan “America First”. This element risks a significant shift in the world order.
Trump’s Ratification of Obama Actions and Policies
When Trump assumed office as the president of the U.S., it was not a secret that he would undo his predecessor’s actions and policies. In his campaign, Trump had labeled Obama as “a catastrophe, a disaster, and the most ignorant president in the U.S. history” (Dooley). After assuming office, he was not shy in dismantling his critical achievements in foreign policy, healthcare, and the economy. Through the assistance of a Republican-controlled Congress, Trump repealed and replaced Obamacare.
The Donald Trump rule also oversaw the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, a United Nations-sponsored deal that created a worldwide commitment to slow global warming. Under the accord, the Obama administration signed a deal to cut carbon emissions by more than a quarter. However, Trump argued that “the agreement would put U.S. businesses at an economic disadvantage” (Dooley). He also cited that the deal would lower wages, close down factors, lead to loss of jobs, and significantly affect economic production if the U.S. failed to pull out.
After assuming office, Trump signed an executive order expressing his intentions to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TTP Agreement encouraged trade between 12 countries on either side of the Pacific Ocean, like the U.S., Mexico, Japan, and Australia (Prasad). The agreement, reached under Obama in October 2016, still needed to be ratified by Congress. Trump believed the deal could undercut American workers and force them to compete with cheap labor overseas.
Assessment of Trump Future
Trump remains the only U.S. president with a significantly low approval rating compared to the other presidents. The Gallup’s annual poll placed him below Obama; his low rating is evident through his ban from using Twitter, where he was accused of falsehoods and misinformation. The former U.S. president was often accused of adopting radical policies, especially on immigrants, which included building a wall along Mexico. The former president will be remembered as the first to be impeached twice.
Trump propagated a myth that the election was stolen, called for his supporters to Washington to protest the certification of the Electoral College vote, and requested them to take back their country. Trump will be viewed as associated with the alt-right following his brutal management of the deadly Charlottesville protest in 2017 (Prasad). Additionally, it is worth to mention the rise in violent right-wing extremism during his tenure in office and the viral spread of hateful conspiracy theories that he encouraged.
Conclusion
Trump will be considered vital in surrendering the U.S. global leadership position. His press conference with Vladimir Putin in 2018 in Helsinki, where he took Putin’s side over U.S. intelligence regarding Russian interference in the election, damaged the U.S. reputation. His approval in the future is likely to reduce further owing to his assault on several multilateral institutions, treaties, and frameworks that echoed the U.S. global position. Under the current cases in court, Trump will likely be viewed as a president who has who’s rule and background do not echo a reliable leader worth leading a superpower.
Works Cited
Chinni, Dante. “Data Show Trump Didn’t ‘Build’ a Great Economy. He Inherited It.” NBCNews. 2020. Web.
Dooley, Erin. “Obama Undone: In First Year, Trump Unravels Predecessor’s Signature Achievements.” ABC News Network. 2018. Web.
The USA, National Archives and Records Administration. Economic Rescue, Recovery, and Rebuilding on a New Foundation. The White House President Barack Obama, 2023. Web.
Goel, Ishita. “Violent Crime Went up More during the Trump Administration than during the Obama Administration.” Logically. 2022. Web.
Gramlich, John. “Under Trump, the Federal Prison Population Continued Its Recent Decline.” Pew Research Center. 2021. Web.
Isidore, Chris. “How Trump’s Three Years of Job Gains Compares to Obama’s | CNN Business.” CNN. 2020. Web.
Prasad, Ritu. “US Historians on What Donald Trump’s Legacy Will Be.” BBC News. 2021. Web.
Presidential Approval Ratings — Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends. Gallup. 2023. Web.
Silcox, Kenadi. “How Does the Trump Economy Compare to Obama’s? A Look Back at 4 Key Data Points.” Money, 2020. Web.