Introduction
One of the most acute conflicts that have matured in 2019 was the disagreement between the United States and Iran. In 2015, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, the United States, Russia, France, and Iran agreed on an action plan designed to lift sanctions in exchange for limiting Iran’s nuclear program to guarantee that Tehran will not receive nuclear weapons (Katzman et al., 2020). This agreement lasted less than three years since, in 2018, the United States decided to withdraw from the contract and impose sanctions against Tehran. Such a conflict threatens inevitable negative consequences for the countries participating in the competition themselves and for many others. This essay aims to consider in detail the conflict, its impact on governments and find the most appropriate solutions.
Main body
The nuclear deal stipulates that Tehran is gradually curtailing its military nuclear program and allowing inspectors from the IAEA to visit uranium enrichment facilities. In exchange, Western countries lift the sanctions imposed on the country. Later, the Iranian government decided not to fulfill its obligations under the agreement and abandoned the agreed restrictions on research on nuclear tests and the intensity of uranium restrictions. At the end of 2020, a law came into force in Iran obliging them to start producing highly enriched uranium and start using more powerful centrifuges beyond the deal’s provisions (Kaur et al., 2020). In addition, the Iranians had to abandon the expanded IAEA inspections if Tehran could not freely trade oil and carry out financial transactions.
In 2020, former US President Donald Trump ordered a missile strike on General Qasem Suleimani. In response, Iran decided to abandon the previous agreements concluded with the United States (Alaaldin, 2020). In addition, the Iraqi authorities launched a retaliatory missile attack on US airbases in Iraq. Iran’s regular statements about the impending revenge against the United States and, as a result, inaction may indicate that the Iranian authorities do not want to engage in further confrontation with America. The attack on the bases of America was likely carried out in such a way that almost no one was injured. Iran sought to demonstrate that it could fight back, but it would still be much better for both countries to reduce the conflict and find a compromise.
The consequences of this conflict will be reflected in the political system of both countries and their allies. In addition, economic systems will also suffer since a likely war will require significant financial investments. Currently, the conflict is stagnating, but both countries can resume an armed conflict at any moment, which will lead to a more substantial confrontation between the allied nations. The new US president Joe Biden sought to find a solution to the conflict by offering the Iranian side to suspend some types of nuclear activities, in exchange for which the US will ease economic sanctions.
Such a US proposal is one of the most likely effective ways, but there is another option. It is evident that both sides do not seek to continue the conflict and do not want to aggravate such complex relations. In this regard, the US government needs to listen to Iran’s response proposals and return to the treaty adopted in 2015. This proposal will help avoid the escalation of the conflict and will probably help prevent a possible war.
This conflict can continue its development and growth. This will happen through clashes between the Americans and various armed groups of Iran. The probability that Iran’s domestic policy will change significantly is relatively low. The threat is excellent because the countries do not meet each other halfway, and as a result, this can lead to active military actions. Currently, negotiations are underway between the heads of state, but no one has agreed to give in so far.
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For some countries, the conflict between Iran and the United States may lead to a drop in oil prices. In the future, the economies of these countries will grow and improve. Nevertheless, military actions can affect every country in a negative direction; in this regard, the heads of state seek to influence the situation. The purpose of this impact is to improve relations and stop the escalation of the conflict. Otherwise, the war can cause irreparable damage to many countries, people and disrupt the usual course of life.
Even though the conflict will help some countries to grow and improve their economic situation, there are still countries that will suffer from this conflict. The German government fears for its economy and the peace of its citizens. The belligerent mood of Iran may direct the authorities to block oil supplies, which will lead to a significant increase in prices and disruption of economic flows. Undoubtedly, for some countries this will be an opportunity to restore the internal financial balance, but for others it will be an acute hopeless crisis.
In addition, the geographical location of Germany, that is, its proximity to Iraq can lead to an influx of refugees. This, in turn, will lead to economic difficulties, as well as to an increase in the criminal situation inside the country. Such a change in the price of oil can be fixed for quite a long time, which will also be fatal for the German economy. The financial situation in Germany may turn out to be deplorable and it will be very difficult to get out of the crisis, which is further complicated by the coronavirus.
Major world powers have chosen to distance themselves from the conflict. They suggested that both countries should be restrained and not provoke the development of the war. Some countries have condemned the United States for the murder of Suleimani and insist that America return to the alliance. Unfortunately, the confrontation persists, and the countries have entirely forgotten about the coronavirus epidemic that has covered the world. Katulis and Juul (2021) claim that the new president Joe Biden is determined to find a peaceful solution to the current conflict. Nevertheless, there is hope that the countries will come to a standard solution that will be beneficial to both.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, the countries are still trying to preserve fragile relations with each other. There is no active provocation from either Iran or America, but neither of them is going to a peace treaty. The proposal to consider the restoration of the United States in the ranks of the countries participating in the 2015 treaty is the most effective way to prevent war and preserve the current position of countries on the world stage. In addition, the consensus will enable the rest of the countries not to be involved in the war, with all its consequences, and to protect themselves and their residents from a deadly and destructive threat.
References
Alaaldin, R. (2020). Iran will lose the battle, but win the war. Brookings.
Katulis, B., & Juul, P. (2021). Seeking a new balance for U.S. policy in the Middle East. Center for American Progress.
Katzman, K., McInnis, K., & Thomas, C. (2020). U.S.-Iran Conflict and Implications for U.S. Policy. Congressional Research Service.
Kaur, H., Kim, A., & Sherman, I. (2020). The US-Iran conflict: A timeline of how we got here. CNN.