The next US presidential elections will be held on November, 3. In less than three weeks Americans will have a chance to decide on their future and whether Trump remains in The White House. According to CNN’s poll of polls, all nationwide surveys that track voters’ opinions reveal a significant lead of the Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden. The polling average is 53% for Biden, while Trump currently receives 42% (CNN, 2020).
However, I want to focus on the statistics provided by Fox News. The poll released on October, 7 revealed a 53-43 percent margin lead of Joe Biden (Blanton, 2020). This margin is almost similar to the average found by CNN. In comparison to the last month, the former vice-president consolidated his leading position by 5 points, reaching a 10-point advantage. The issues regarding the Covid-19 pandemic and the economy were found to have the strongest impact on voters’ opinions.
The margin of error reported by Fox News is plus or minus 3 percentage points. It means that we have a 95% confidence level that if the survey would be fielded once again the new estimate would be within 3 percentage points. If Biden enjoys a 10 point advantage, his lead is outside the margin of error. The margin of error for the difference between the two may reach 6%, which still sees the Democratic candidate 4 points ahead of the incumbent President.
Nevertheless, the number of votes is less important than where they were won due to an Electoral College system. In general, if the election were held today, Joe Biden would win getting the majority of the Electoral College (more than 279 electoral votes). The polls suggest Mr. Biden is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that were won by Trump in 2016 (Blanton, 2020). The situation seems great for Joe Biden, but we should keep in mind that polls reveal how popular is the candidate at the moment and there is enough time for significant changes.
Blanton, D. (2020). Fox News poll: Biden gains ground over Trump. Fox News. Web.
CNN. 2020 Presidential election polls. Web.