Executive Summary
This foreign policy research analysis focuses on Kenya, one of the most prominent countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The country has a land size of 569,251 square kilometers or roughly twice the size of Arizona State. According to the most recent estimates, some 55.8 million people inhabit Kenya (The World Factbook, 2022). This population comprises different ethnic groups, the largest of which are Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjin, Luo, and Kamba. The country’s 85.5% and 10.9% of the population are classified as Christians and Muslims, respectively (The World Factbook). Despite its ethnic diversity, Kenya’s religious profile depicts significant homogeneity.
The country’s historical background is significantly tied to its governance system. Officially, Kenya gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1968. However, its governance structure largely resembles that of its colonizer and continues to be engulfed by a façade of democratic rule. The country promulgated a new constitution in 2010 as part of a resolve to strengthen democracy and the rule of law, but this path has been beset by political violence (U.S. Relations with Kenya, 2022). In the 2022 elections, Kenyans demonstrated remarkable political maturity, refusing a repeat of the post-election violence recorded in previous years, especially in 2007/2018. Consequently, Kenya can be seen as a developing country with relative stability.
Scope of Problem
Kenya has many natural resources that make it desirable as a trading partner for the United States. Given the United States’ high demand for fossil fuel, the recent discovery of Kenya’s oil reserves makes it worth befriending. Tullow Oil Plc, a British company, made a discovery in 2012 that revealed the country has rich oil reserves (Tullow Oil Plc, 2022). In addition to oil, Kenya’s natural resource portfolio comprises gas, limestone, gypsum, soda ash, diatomite, gemstones, fluorspar, zinc, wildlife, and hydropower (The World Factbook, 2022). Despite the presence of reserves, they are few: Lake Magadi is believed to be the central location of the most common fossil, soda ash. Nevertheless, soda has become the primary fossil that Kenya exports. Although legislation strictly restricts the transfer of minerals to other countries under the Mining Act, it is with soda that Kenya creates the most extensive investment campaigns.
The country also has rich agricultural potential, as indicated by its farm produce, which includes sugar cane, potatoes, corn, milk, and various fruits. In addition to the above, Kenya is one of the world’s largest suppliers of tea and coffee. Kenya’s climate belt is rich for growing these crops, so they should be considered when analyzing the benefits of trade with the country.
Kenya is also a viable trading partner due to its vast market potential for U.S.-made products. Economic estimates reveal that the country has purchasing power parity of $226,94 billion and an actual gross domestic product per capita of $4,200 (The World Factbook, 2022). Kenya’s largely youthful population, relatively stable political atmosphere, and economic policies that favor international trade make it worth considering as a destination for many goods made in the U.S. and a source of human capital. Kenya’s high unemployment rate results from a shortage of manufacturing jobs, and the agricultural industry remains controversial. For the U.S., Kenya could be a new trading partner because it is more profitable than shifting human resources to China, where legislation is not always willing to make concessions to the U.S. site.
Policy Recommendations
Kenya’s current leading trade and economic direction with China may constrain U.S. policy. The development of relations with Eastern countries has led to growth in the health sectors (building resources), housing security (construction resources), and food security. Consequently, Kenya is developing and will gradually become a profitable partner not only for China but also for Western countries and the United States. Limited resources are a concern in campaigning with Kenya, but pronounced agricultural activity is a strong argument for cooperation. The main recommendation is to improve relations with Kenya and develop the African direction of trade.
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The benefits of trade and cooperation with Kenya will be an increase in organic food in the U.S. market. It is a significant plus since U.S. food is perceived as low-quality and artificially grown. In addition, the U.S. can use the investment field of Kenya to its advantage because of its favorable geographical location. Trade opportunities can also be realized by attracting capable young people who will become leaders in negotiations and the growth of mutually beneficial cooperation. In addition to the previously mentioned, the disadvantages or obstacles could be a decrease in trade with China, which is afraid of losing Kenya as a partner.
Current U.S. Policy
Current U.S. policy is characterized by a strong interest in Kenya’s stability issues. According to the U.S. Department of State (2022), a growing partnership with Kenya began in 2002 and improved civil liberties. In addition, thanks to President Trump, a bilateral strategic dialogue agreement is now in effect. The main subjects of the dialogue are economic prosperity, democracy, and health care. Since July 14, 2022, the U.S. & Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership has been in effect (U.S. relations with Kenya, 2022). U.S. policy is positive toward Kenya, following this paper’s recommendations.
References
Tullow Oil Plc. (2022). Tullow in Kenya. Tullow Oil Plc (LSE: TLW). Web.
The World Factbook. (2022). Kenya – the world factbook. Central Intelligence Agency – CIA. Web.
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U.S. relations with Kenya. (2022). U.S. Department of State. Web.