Introduction
Significant changes occur in the global power system, affecting practically all countries and having far-reaching geopolitical implications. Namely, renewables are an effective technological option for combating climate change worldwide. Since the Kyoto Protocol began functioning, and as concerns about preventing climate change have heated up, so has the demand for renewable energy (Tagotra 2022, para. 1). The increased use of sustainable energy and related systems, such as solar panels, wind turbines, hydro turbines, electric cars, and battery energy storage technologies, raised the demand for a variety of metals and minerals used in their manufacture (IRENA 2019). As a result, the renewable energy sector strongly relies on obtaining crucial and rare earth minerals, “including lithium, cobalt, copper, gold, and uranium,” to manufacture the mentioned technologies (Tagotra 2022, para. 5). Thus, the renewable energy geopolitics could be explained by the dependence of political players on resources needed for new technologies and their production process.
As a result, the renewable energy trend will generate an irreversible impetus for a worldwide energy transformation, changing the global power balance. For most of the last century, the global influence was inextricably linked to fossil fuels (Hook and Henry 2021). However, states are increasingly vying to build green-energy infrastructure nowadays (Thompson 2022). Consequently, countries that develop environmentally friendly technologies, export green energy or purchase less fossil fuel promise to benefit from the new economy, while those that rely on fossil fuel exports risk losing power (Hook and Henry 2021). Nevertheless, renewable energy might worsen security issues and geopolitical conflicts over essential materials and cybersecurity (Vakulchuk, Overland, and Scholten 2020). The crisis might be caused by hydrocarbon exporters becoming the biggest losers from the energy transition.
Many nations are transitioning to renewable energy because they possess limited oil and gas reserves and want to reduce their reliance on energy imports. For example, India’s over-reliance on China for vital minerals essential to production has raised uneasiness, which impacts the political-economic interdependencies and geopolitical alignments between China and India (Tagotra 2022). India has shifted to developing methods to lessen its reliance on China for inputs to its renewable energy industry (Tagotra 2022). The Indian government imposed a customs levy on imported Chinese items to protect domestic renewable energy. The geopolitical consequence of the transition for India is regaining more trading balance, while China might overtake more trade roots in other regions.
China and India: Resource-rich Locations for Leveraging Renewable Energy
Control over and access to large energy markets and resources is a valuable asset because it allows nations to preserve essential countries’ interests at home while also leveraging economic and political power overseas. On the other hand, states that lack such assets have less power and are more insecure. Nowadays, such an argument perfectly applies to India and China: both nations are not resource-rich in terms of fossil fuels. For example, according to the International Trade Administration (2022), India is the world’s third-largest energy consumer: peak demand in April 2022 surpassed 207 gigawatts for the first time (para. 2). In turn, China is the world’s largest buyer of oil and natural gas, as well as a significant coal importer (Gross 2020). Last year, coal and gas accounted for 71% of Chinese power output (Bloomberg News 2022, para. 1). As a result, the two Asian countries are identical regarding their sensitivity to imported fossil fuels.
On the other hand, renewable energy resources are available in some form or another in most nations, as opposed to fossil fuels, which are limited in certain geographic areas. According to IRENA (2019), “China has metal reserves; India has iron ore, steel and titanium,” which leverages these countries in the renewable energy arena (p. 59). India has set lofty medium and long-term renewable energy objectives. Efforts are being undertaken to minimize energy import reliance while improving India’s energy security. In recent years, India witnessed historic levels of investment in renewable energy, which makes it the world’s fourth most appealing renewable energy market (Myers and Shine 2022; India Brand Equity Foundation 2022). China already leads in terms of renewable energy output. It is now the world’s greatest producer of solar and wind power, as well as the largest domestic and foreign shareholder in renewable energy (Dominic 2022). Therefore, India and China might profit the most from utilizing renewable energy resources in the future.
However, the worldwide shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources may provide financial issues for India and China. Despite the government’s efforts to portray the country as environmentally concerned and encourage investments in sustainable energy, India will remain hooked to fossil fuels for decades (Dinakar 2021). China’s reliance on fossil fuels is as strong as ever (Bloomberg News 2022). As a result, the most significant disparities in the budget are projected in India ($178 billion) and China ($140 billion) (Koshy 2022, para. 9). Moreover, with the intensifying economic conflict and competition between India and China, corporations on both sides have already threatened to withdraw from each other’s markets (Prys-Hansen 2022). Therefore, India and China have a greater chance of becoming less dependent on other countries for energy imports. However, it would still cost them a lot since they have not yet implemented profound transitions toward renewables.
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Competition Over Key Infrastructure and Transportation Routes
Since renewables are geographically dispersed, a competitive advantage based on necessary infrastructure and transportation routes should be addressed. Control of grid infrastructure, for example, will become critical for national security as well as for extending global power and authority. Linkage and communications may supplement a country’s land, sea, and air force. Additionally, states are vying to build green-energy infrastructure like solar panels and wind turbines, as well as mass-produce electric automobiles.
China and India made advances as a result of their recognition of opportunities. China’s State Grid intends to build 450 gigatonnes of solar and wind power production capability in the Gobi and other drier climates to fulfill the majority of its new energy demand and contribute to the country’s climate goals (Reuters 2022, para. 1). The current infrastructure in India is restructured with the government’s emphasis on renewable energy sources (India Smart Grid Forum 2022). The government declared a 175,000 MW renewable power output target by 2022 as part of a big push towards renewable energy (Gridspertise 2022, para. 2). State-run Chinese enterprises are aiming to purchase Indian companies in the engineering, contracting, construction, and power-generating sectors (Industrial Automation 2022). However, considering the strategic importance of infrastructure projects in India, the indigenous sector has reservations about Chinese enterprises participating. Moreover, Chinese state-sponsored hackers have attacked India’s electrical systems in Ladakh, presumably to gather intelligence on India’s essential infrastructure or to plan future disruption (The Economic Times 2022). As a result, India is tightening regulations for companies interested in entering the electricity transmission sector.
Furthermore, transportation routes gained importance given the changing trading dynamics due to renewables. For example, the Chinese national and provincial governments have launched new energy vehicle development (Li et al., 2021). Similarly, India’s second-busiest airport is now totally powered by renewable energy (Joshi 2022). Furthermore, the New Silk Roads plan was created to safeguard vital routes to and from China. The New Silk Highways will be a massive network of ports, trains, roads, pipelines, and industrial parks connecting China to Eurasia (Armando 2022). The Silk Roads will transport renewable energy from China to the rest of the globe. As a countermeasure, the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) was released. Through Indo-Japan integration, this corridor aims to enhance the infrastructure of Africa and Asia (Dhyani n.d.). Although India and Japan planned to defend the Indo-Pacific coastline by linking ports, the AAGC has no clear action plan (Taniguchi 2020). As a result, it is vague if the project can compete with and provide a liberal rival to China’s New Silk Roads.
Control Over Energy Supplies and The Potential for Supply Disruptions
While countries that rely on fossil fuels are subject to supply disruptions, those that can create their renewable energy sources are better suited to achieve energy security. According to IRENA (2019), renewable sources of electricity necessitate flexible power networks that can deal with real-time swings in demand and supply. Moreover, although some believe that nations with monopolies on power systems have disproportionate supply control over supplies, that imbalance cannot simply be leveraged as a tool of geopolitical pressure because importing countries will have other alternatives available to them (IRENA 2019). They can either generate the electricity themselves, for example, by using renewable energy at home or import it from neighboring nations.
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Renewable technologies and batteries require minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements to be manufactured. Some worry that nations with abundant supplies of these critical minerals will use them to impose pressure on those that lack them. For example, China once restricted the supply of rare earths to international consumers. Since China controlled a significant portion of the world supply of rare earth minerals, markets experienced disruption (IRENA 2019). On the other hand, rare earth minerals are not geologically rare, so the disruption was not for long. There are also alternatives to using rare earths and other critical metals in renewable energy technology.
There are other threats to renewable energy supply coming from different issues. As such, Countries that host transit routes may become a significant impediment to cross-border trade (Supponen 2020). The continuous geopolitical conflict between the United States and China is another danger to global supply chains for renewable energy technology. This competition may put significant strain on current supply systems (Tagotra 2022). The pandemic’s demands had already limited supply networks. In India, for example, homegrown wind manufacturing capabilities are substantially developed. Wind turbines, on the other hand, require a variety of metals, which India imports in large quantities. Under-construction projects around the country have been delayed due to lockdowns, transportation limitations, and a lack of staff (“Taking a Hit: Indian Renewables Sector Grapples with Global Supply Disruptions and Price Uncertainties” 2022). Similarly, supply chain delays from China, as well as rising steel and other material prices, are slowing the advancement of renewable energy in Australia and worldwide (Hannah 2022). As a result, India’s local wind sector and China’s renewables exports are vulnerable to global geopolitical and supply chain disruptions.
Conclusion
To conclude, unlike fossil fuels, concentrated in some geographic regions, renewable energy supplies are available in most countries in some form or another. This fact opens an opportunity for growth for countries that lack energy fuels and import them. As a result, both India and China, which have minerals needed for renewable energy production, invested in implementing new energy solutions and future resource trade. The countries invest in technologies for producing energy from their raw materials as well, competing with each other severely.
Furthermore, the new geopolitics of renewable energy demand restructuring domestic infrastructure, which might improve the country’s independence and security. As a result, India and China have expressed commitments to renew their power grids, as well as implement new sources of energy. However, China’s attempts to become the renewable energy superpower raised national security concerns, making India constrict its trading relationships with its rivals.
Moreover, the presence of renewables lessens the significance of present energy choke spots. Hence, not only have energy resources been the subject of geopolitical struggle, but so have their transportation routes. As a consequence, India and China enhanced their internal transportation routes in terms of sustainability. China planned to build an ambitious New Silk Way for exporting infrastructure and renewable energy, while India tried to organize a similar project in alliance with Japan with little success. Finally, although the renewable trade supposes no issues caused by supply control, there have already been supply chain disruptions due to the pandemic and geopolitical pressure, which might undermine the current progress in green energy.
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