Introduction
The Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, which includes UAE, consists of leading members of the Middle East and Persian Gulf region. Iran’s growing regional influence and the potential threat to the region have been a longstanding concern of these countries (Bianco, 2020). Many negative factors have shaped these attitudes and concerns among GCC members, including Iran’s nuclear program, power instability and involvement in military conflicts, and support for proxies and militant groups through to terrorist organizations. In addition, certain religious strains are important for members of the Muslim world, which is a complicating factor (Golmohammadi, 2019). The escalating tensions with Iran could threaten the national security of the GCC countries, especially the UAE.
Background
Chapter 1
The Period and Conditions of the Iran Revolution
The Islamic Revolution of 1979 is an important turning point in the context of assessing changes in the country’s relations with its neighbors. The turmoil and the following establishment of the Islamic Republic resulted in the rise to power of a regime with a vastly aggressive ideology and a tendency to support insurgents and militants in the region (Seliktar & Rezaei, 2020). This part of the study will examine the conditions that led to the Iranian Revolution and the consequences of assessing economic, social, political, and religious factors.
Iran Revolution Export
The new government that replaced the Shah of Iran is prone to export revolutionary ideology, which can undermine the region’s stability. The influence of an insurgency can be exercised on different levels, and it can grow and expand (Seliktar & Rezaei, 2020). For this reason, the section will focus on specific cases of exporting revolution to neighboring territories and assess the likelihood and danger of further developments in the geopolitical instability of today.
Chapter 2
The Role of Iran in the Yemen Conflict
The aim of this background section is to review and assess Iran’s influence on the Yemen conflict based on available data and eyewitness accounts. The conflict began in 2015, and the global and regional communities accuse Iran of supporting the Houthis fighting against the Yemeni government and its allies, the Saudi-led coalition (Vatanka, 2020). In addition, prospects for developments against the backdrop of new treaties between Iran and Saudi Arabia will be examined.
Iran Regional Influence and Proxies
Due to several armed conflicts, the country’s growing regional influence is likewise a concern for all GCC members and the global community. Ongoing support for different aggressive actions, the formation of destabilizing mutinous proxies in the region, and the use of representatives further show the emerging negative reputation of Iran’s government and policies (Al-Moslemani, 2021). The study should assess this issue separately to determine the level of danger and confirm or deny UAE concerns.
Chapter 3
Iran Nuclear Deal
The issue of the Iran nuclear deal, which could pose an even greater threat not only to the UAE and other GCC nations but to other countries without exception, should be noted as a separate item. The deal, signed in 2015, was supposed to help curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for easing the economic and political sanctions the country has been under for years (Batmanghelidj & Rouhi, 2021). However, the level of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its government’s unwillingness to comply with the signed treaties is a contentious matter. The current status, development, and potential consequences of the nuclear deal will be examined in light of current data on the country’s increasing rate of nuclearization.
Literature Review
The literature selected for this study and research includes official data and peer-reviewed academic sources. Practically all of them emphasize the complexity and multifaceted nature of both the Iran-GCC relationship and its formation. Han and Hakimian’s (2019) broad study focuses on the historical and political assessment of this relationship.
In addition, Bianco (2020) further examines and assesses the levels of regional influence and the formation of proxies directly related to Iran. Qualitative research includes analysis of multiple sources, statements by officials, and consideration of geopolitical developments from the perspective of GCC governments. Vatanka (2020) focuses on assessing Iran’s involvement in the Yemen conflict, while Al-Moslemani (2021) also scrutinizes periods of crisis and GCC relations with Iraq and Iran. Thus, the countries’ relations can be analyzed from different angles.
Equally important are the sources concerning the additional risk factors mentioned earlier. The nuclear deal, its impact on shaping the relationship, and U.S. involvement in the context of GCC attitudes are considered (Batmanghelidj & Rouhi, 2021). Golmohammadi (2019) looks at Iranian politics from the specific perspective of interpreting foreign policy and its potential switchability. Farzanegan (2022) concentrates in the same direction, focusing on the Iranian Revolution, the war, and its aftermath. However, the currently available research has certain limitations and is incomplete.
Firstly, most of the literature focuses more on the economic and political aspects, giving minimal focus to the social and cultural factors that can largely shape politics. A second limitation is the lack of dynamism in investigating the complexity of the relationship between the GCC and Iran. Finally, a remarkably significant limitation is the lack of relevance. While finding sources within an acceptable academic period, current world events in geopolitics are excessively active and affect both short-term and long-term indicators, requiring a reassessment of threats and updates of information.
Thesis and Main Objectives
Based on certain limitations of the available research, it is possible to identify the study’s main objectives in surveying, formulating, and assessing the potential security threat of Iran to the Middle East. A special emphasis will be placed on the UAE and other GCC countries. Based on the evaluation of other sources, the thesis can be formulated as follows:
Iran’s growing regional influence, political activity, and nuclear development moves pose a growing geopolitical, social, and economic threat to the GCC countries.
Research Question Formulation
The relevant research question corresponds to the thesis and is formed more specifically:
What is the level of Iran’s current threat to the GCC, if any, and what are the key factors that may define and shape it? Can they be considered a national security concern for the UAE?
Theoretical Framework
The basic theoretical framework of the study underlying the proposal is the GCC’s comprehensive regional security theory. In other words, the perceptions and interactions of the countries in the region can be expressed in security conclusions after analysis. Accordingly, all aspects should be evaluated equally, including the most relevant data on political, social, and economic changes, without excluding the historical lens of the study. The framework structure likewise includes an assessment of the balance of power, the dynamics of events, and national security issues, along with ideological and religious indicators crucial to the region.
Research Design and Methodology
Data Collection
For data collection, this study plans to use primary and secondary sources with a concentration on secondary ones. The primary sources will include articles from international policy experts and, if possible, interviews with local experts. Much of the data will be drawn from research in the political and academic literature, as well as governmental statements in official sources and the media.
Methods
The research methodology plans to combine qualitative and quantitative approaches focusing on the former. The quantitative ones are mainly planned in the format of assessing numerical indicators followed by a qualitative appraisal of trends. The final answer to the research questions is a qualitative international relations analysis.
Design
The research design is planned in a descriptive format with a narrative and historical analysis of the findings using a variety of case studies.
Plan and Timeline
A more detailed plan may be developed after approval of the proposal and specific timelines for the completion of the project as determined by the research supervisor.
Ethical Considerations
This research is planned in accordance with international ethical principles. Informed consent will be used if interview data is used, and all research data must be confidential and protected. Although there are no UAE-specific requirements for such research, general ethical considerations will be considered.
Significance and Limitations
The significance of the research lies in its relevance in the context of the volatile geopolitical situation in the world and the GCC region. Understanding the potential threats to the politics, economy, and society of UAE as a representative of the GCC is necessary for the further successful functioning and overall development of the states. However, such research is also not without limitations – quantitative deviations or inaccuracies in the information from primary sources may occur at the data collection stage. In addition, the number of primary sources is limited by the number of potential participants and their regional locations.
Conclusion
Thus, this study will examine the threat to the GCC that Iran’s current actions and geopolitical behavior may pose, as well as potential trends in such behavior. It is planned to identify the determinants of regional tensions in order to consider them for possible correction or mitigation. In addition, despite the limitations of this study, as outlined above, it can help to update the data and close the knowledge gap on this issue for a short period in an evolving environment. In the longer term, this study can provide possible major problems and threats for further study and options to address them.
References
Al-Moslemani, S. M. (2021). The GCC, Iraq, and Iran: Perception of threats before and after the crisis. In M. Zweiri, M. M. Rahman, & A. Kamal (Eds.), The 2017 Gulf studies (pp. 163–178). Springer Singapore. Web.
Batmanghelidj, E., & Rouhi, M. (2021). The Iran nuclear deal and sanctions relief: Implications for US policy. Survival, 63(4), 183–198. Web.
Bianco, C. (2020). The GCC monarchies: Perceptions of the Iranian threat amid shifting geopolitics. The International Spectator: A Quarterly Journal of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, 55(2), 92–107. Web.
Farzanegan, M. R. (2022). The economic cost of the Islamic revolution and war for Iran: Synthetic counterfactual evidence. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(2), 129–149. Web.
Golmohammadi, V. (2019). The foreign policy of the Islamic republic of Iran: Prospects for change and continuity. All Azimuth A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace, 8(1), 93–102. Web.
Han, J., & Hakimian, H. (2019). The regional security complex in the Persian gulf: The contours of Iran’s GCC policy. Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 13(4), 493–508. Web.
Seliktar, O., & Rezaei, F. (2020). Iran, revolution, and proxy wars. Palgrave Macmillan.
Vatanka, A. (2020). Iran’s role in the Yemen crisis. In S. W. Day, & N. Brehony (Eds.), Global, regional, and local dynamics in the Yemen crisis (pp. 149–164). Springer International Publishing. Web.